2011 trend review and 2012 trend of the hottest ci

2022-08-13
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Review of the trend of dengdu market in 2011 and forecast of the trend in 2012

2011 is China In the first year of the 12th Five Year Plan, the external international economic environment was complex and volatile, and new situations occurred in the domestic economic operation. China's economy continued to develop in the expected direction of macro-control, and the tasks of controlling inflation and maintaining growth were equally important. Affected by multiple factors such as rising costs, housing regulation, the rise and fall of rare earths, sluggish export sales and so on, the lighting industry experienced a phased recession in 2011, and the general lighting in the market reflected the situation that the peak season was not prosperous and the off-season was lighter The lighting price index of Guzhen has come out of a zigzag annual line in a sluggish atmosphere, but on the whole, it is still better than 2010, and the annual lighting wholesale price index increased by 19.0%

I. review of the lighting market trend in Guzhen in 2011

the lighting market trend in 2011 has twists and turns, and the overall market trend is quite ups and downs. Although the domestic real estate regulation policy and the shadow of the international financial crisis have affected the demand of the lighting market in terms of how the testing machine often breaks down, and inflationary pressure and tightening monetary policy have hindered the growth of lighting enterprises. However, in view of the rising prices of upstream raw materials such as metal materials, rare earth and energy, which has provided a certain cost support to the lighting market, at the same time, medium and high-end lighting stores across the country continue to emerge with the expansion of lighting market demand, driving China's lighting market to show a situation of rapid channel growth, grade and quality improvement. In the second half of the year, against the backdrop of the poor macro environment, although the lighting industry encountered the peak period of exhibitions and trade fairs and the traditional peak ordering season, and the cost of raw materials also decreased, the weakening trend of the lighting market demand became more obvious, the support of the peak season trend weakened rapidly, and the lighting market at the end of the year ended 2011 with a contraction and downward trend

the specific performance is: monthly raw material prices and people 8 The oil collector of the spring change experimental oil pump is not pressed on the pump body, and the impact of rising labor costs, as well as the continuous high operation of domestic consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), although in the off-season of traditional markets such as the Spring Festival, the sales volume and output have narrowed, but the lighting price index in Guzhen still increased by 10.7%. The market entered the shock consolidation period in late April; From May to early June, the trading volume of the lighting market was flat, and all series of sub indexes basically maintained a narrow range of volatility. Except for the rise of commercial lighting, the other four series of indexes fell to varying degrees, but the decline was relatively mild. Driven by the aftereffect of the industry exhibition concentration period, June is the month of gradual active warming in the traditional off-season of the lighting industry, but the subsequent July fell for four weeks, affected by the overall impact of weak demand, The index fell sharply in August "V-shaped market. Month is the traditional peak season of the lighting industry. The index rose moderately in the atmosphere of the traditional peak season, but the overall range was not large. The cumulative increase in the three months was 6.4%. Affected by macro factors, the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. After entering November, with the continuous reduction of raw material costs, the state increased regulation and control of real estate, coupled with the advent of winter, the lighting market demand was further weakened. In the case of reduced shipments, the lighting market in November and December Fu Mingke, senior senior senior minister of the China Mining Federation, believes that the market is in a weak downward situation. It has fallen for five weeks since November, with a cumulative decline of 6.1% in both months

II. Analysis of influencing factors of lighting market in ancient town in 2011

a careful analysis of the macro environment and internal causes shows that the rise and fall of lighting price index is caused by a series of comprehensive factors. The main factors affecting the price trend of lighting in ancient towns in 2011 are listed below

first, the characteristics of cost driven rise are obvious, and the rising cost of the production chain is the main factor of the index rise

the lighting market is closely related to the domestic economic trend. Since the beginning of this year, affected by inflation, the rise of raw material prices, labor costs and logistics costs has deeply troubled the development of enterprises. Production costs have directly increased by 20% to 30%. In the first half of the year, the price of domestic refined oil has been raised twice, causing direct pressure on the cost of lighting products with large convection flux. These factors have a particularly significant impact on the index in the month of the year

second, the regulation of real estate policies is deepened, and the growth of terminal demand for lighting products is weak

in 2011, the Chinese government continued to strengthen the regulation and control of the real estate market, and the real estate market facing multiple challenges began to fall in some areas in the second half of the year, Several prefectures and cities have successively introduced "purchase restrictions "The price fixing measures have an immediate effect on the decline in the transaction volume and price of the real estate market, causing the market to impose certain restrictions on the demand for lighting products, reducing the consumption of lighting, commercial lighting, outdoor lighting, etc. closely related to real estate. And from the perspective of national policies and macroeconomic operating environment, it is expected that the regulation and control of the domestic real estate industry will not be relaxed in 2012, which means that the relevant lighting industry will still face large sales in 2012 Resistance

third, the rise and fall of rare earth prices caused energy-saving lamp companies to fluctuate in the ups and downs

the price rise of rare earth has a great impact on the trichromatic phosphors used in energy-saving lamps. The selling price of trichromatic phosphors rose from yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to nearly 3000 yuan/kg for some monochromatic phosphors in July. Such a high price rise made it difficult for downstream enterprises to sustain. The price of energy-saving lamps that regularly use trichromatic phosphors ushered in a collective price rise of about 10% in the first half of the year. After October, with the release of speculators hoarding phosphors and China's gradual grasp of the pricing power of rare earth resources and the role of increasing production, the price of rare earth is experiencing a sharp correction, and the price of energy-saving lamp products has eased the pressure of rising prices, This year, energy-saving lamp enterprises collectively took a thrilling "roller coaster".

Fourth, LED has developed rapidly, the technology is mature, and the cost is reduced.

the LED industry has broad prospects for development. Coupled with the guidance and support of government policies, LED has become the most desirable lighting enterprises of all sizes "Cake. The LED industry has formed an upsurge, whether it is chips, epitaxial chips, packaging, applications, all showing explosive growth in quantity. The price of LED products will continue to decline with the maturing and promotion of the rapid development stage of LED in the future. In the first half of this year, the price of LED products fluctuated slowly due to the rising price of raw materials. This time, it was approved to prepare for the construction of the National Engineering Laboratory It is a full recognition of Wanhua's ability to research surface materials, integrate and gather innovative resources, and improve the combination of industry, University, research and application. After July, its price basically showed a unilateral downward trend, and ended at the lowest level of the whole year by December

the result of homogenization competition in the increasingly competitive LED industry will be a price war and a decline in gross profit margin. In the context of multi-channel capital spending on led projects, many enterprises can only continue to seize the market by reducing prices

III. prediction of the lighting market trend of ancient town in 2012

with the changes in the world economic environment, the increasingly obvious signal of national regulation of the real estate industry, the government and the industry are about to introduce new industrial policies and standards, and the shift of the focus of market channels to second and third tier cities, the lighting industry will usher in new development opportunities and challenges

in 2012, the lighting industry will face pressures such as high raw material operation, slowing growth of internal and external demand, and intensifying industrial competition. At the same time, some positive factors will be released in succession: the transition of store economy from scale to service, from low-end to medium and high-end intensive operation; With the popularization of LED application, it accelerates the gradual transformation from decorative to functional and popularizes; From next October, China will ban the sale and import of incandescent lamps for general lighting of 100 watts and above, and promote the application of energy-saving lamps and LED lighting

based on the above factors, it is expected that the lighting price index of the ancient town will continue to show the ups and downs of the traditional light and peak seasons in 2012. It is expected that the trend of the whole year will be stable and increase, but the growth rate is slightly slower than that in 2011

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