2002 outlook report II of the hottest global alumi

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Outlook report of global aluminum market in 2002 (II)

China's primary aluminum output in 2002 will reach 4.1 million. From the perspective of supply, 2001 and 2002 are the fastest expansion period of China's electrolytic aluminum industry. After the national production capacity reached 4.2 million in 2001, it is expected that nearly 1million new or expanded production capacity will be put into operation this year, and the national primary aluminum production capacity will exceed 5million. According to the capacity utilization rate of the previous two years, China's primary aluminum output will reach 4.15 million in 2002

in the first two months of this year, according to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Association, the domestic production of primary aluminum was 629000, with a year-on-year increase of 22%, slightly higher than the growth rate last year. The output in February was 309000, equivalent to 3.973 million per year. However, considering that some new production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of this year, and the monthly output will be significantly increased, it is predicted that the actual output may be higher. Based on the above two factors, it is predicted that China's primary aluminum output this year will be about 4.1 million

China's aluminum exports have a strong momentum. In the first two months of this year, China's primary aluminum exports increased at a super high speed, while imports continued to decline significantly. As a result, the net export of primary aluminum increased by 264800. In fact, the export of primary aluminum has accelerated since the second half of last year. Last year, the net export of primary aluminum was 69000. This year, the growth rate of exports has further accelerated. The reason is that with the rapid increase of domestic production, the pressure of supply in the aluminum market is gradually emerging, which has caused the stagnation of domestic aluminum prices. From November last year to March this year, the spot price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by 11.5%, while the domestic spot aluminum price rose by only 5.5% in the same period. Therefore, the price difference between the two places gradually narrowed. In mid October last year, the spot price difference at home and abroad was about 3200 yuan per RMB. By the middle of March this year, the price difference had narrowed to 1380 yuan. After considering the factors of export tax rebate, many manufacturing enterprises believe that processing with imported materials is more cost-effective than domestic sales. From January to February this year, the proportion of exports under the mode of processing with imported materials accounted for 89% of total exports, which fully indicates the reasons for the soaring export of primary aluminum. As long as the current price difference between the international and domestic aluminum markets is maintained, the strong momentum of exports will continue throughout the year

by the same token, although the tariff on imported aluminum ingots has been reduced from the previous 9% to 5% since this year, the current domestic and foreign price difference is too small to be profitable under general trade. According to the import and export statistics in February, among all 32037 imported electrolytic aluminum, the proportion of incoming and incoming processing imports is as high as 98%, that is to say, almost all imported raw aluminum is for processing trade

another noteworthy figure in terms of import and export is the import volume of alumina. After the implementation of the automatic import registration system in October last year, the import volume of alumina fell by only one month, and then resumed rapid growth. In the first two months of this year, it also maintained a high level of imports of more than 300000 per month. At this rate, the import volume of this year will not be less than 3million. This amount can roughly fill the gap in China's alumina supply this year

China's domestic primary aluminum consumption growth as for consumption, the key depends on whether China's economic growth rate can still be maintained at more than 7%. As the economic growth in the past two years is mainly driven by investment, the National People's Congress has approved the plan to continue to issue additional treasury bonds in the squeeze out of the sheath this year. Therefore, the government will still maintain a high investment to ensure that the growth rate of GDP is not less than 7%. This has laid a solid foundation for the growth of domestic aluminum consumption. In addition, major projects such as China's accession to the WTO and the Olympic Games, the construction of the west east gas transmission project, the Qinghai Tibet railway, the Three Gorges project, and the second phase transformation of agriculture. 1.3 the adoption of precision electro-hydraulic servo proportional valve group control technology will greatly promote investment demand and consumption demand, and drive the consumption of steel, non-ferrous metals and other industrial raw materials at the same time. Among them, the second agricultural reconstruction project plans to invest 100billion yuan and will be completed by the end of the year. This project can have an immediate effect on stimulating aluminum consumption

judging from the indicators that have been released in the first two months of this year to reflect China's macroeconomic situation, the economy has made a good start this year. From January to February, the investment in state-owned and other economic fixed assets reached 140.8 billion yuan, an increase of 24.5% year-on-year. From January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 692.05 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. According to Chinese customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value reached US $75.73 billion, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year; Among them, exports were US $40.84 billion and imports were US $34.89 billion, with growth rates of 14.1% and 3.2% respectively. Since the "troika" driving the economy are running fast, we have reason to believe that the consumption of industrial raw materials, including non-ferrous metals, will maintain a high growth rate

combined with the macroeconomic situation and the development trend of various micro key aluminum consumption fields, we have reason to expect that the growth rate of China's domestic primary aluminum consumption this year will not be less than 9%

conclusion: after a detailed analysis of various factors affecting the balance of supply and demand, we believe that the year 2002 was 11 In the Timken experimental machine market, the supply of primary aluminum is still in excess of demand, and fundamental factors do not support the sharp rise in aluminum prices. However, as the trough of the economic cycle has passed, aluminum consumption will inevitably accelerate. Based on good expectations, the price of aluminum, a key product supported by the international market refining leading group, is expected to rise moderately. China's aluminum consumption will grow faster this year than last year due to the commencement of a series of large projects. However, due to the rapid growth of domestic market supply, only through exports can supply and demand be balanced. On this basis, domestic aluminum prices will follow the rise of the international market, but the range is far inferior to the London market

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